Nikiski, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

671
FXAK68 PAFC 070316
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
616 PM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: This afternoon through Monday evening)...

Key Messages:


* Multiple winter weather hazards remain in effect across a good
  portion of Southcentral Alaska through late tonight or Saturday
  morning as a potent storm system continues to track into Prince
  William Sound by Saturday. Please visit our weather.gov/afc for
  a complete breakdown of winter weather products.

Discussion:

As of 3PM this afternoon, a deep area of low pressure is rapidly
moving into the Prince William Sound area as its attendant front
lifts inland across Southcentral. Looking at radar returns, snow
continues to fall inland while coastal areas have seen rain mix in
or a transition to rain altogether, but some are transitioning
back to snow as the occlusion wraps around. With the continued
eastward trend with the surface low and upper low, most of the
snow from this system is still on track to fall along the windward
slopes of the Kenai and Chugach mountains from upslope
enhancement, though the downsloping in lee of the mountains looks
to have come to an end as the radar continues to fill in. Aloft,
the longwave trough responsible for deepening our surface low has
pinched off into an upper level low across Southwest Alaska and
the Alaska Peninsula. As the surface low continues to lift
northward through this evening, winds will shift to southerly for
the Cook Inlet region, allowing for snowfall to fill in. Steady
snow is also spilling across the Copper River Basin. As the
precipitation winds down, gusty southerly winds will develop
helping to temporarily drive temperatures close to freezing for
places like Glennallen. Along the Edgerton Highway, this push of
warmer air could result in a wintry mix of precipitation leading
to icy roadways.

Where the most uncertainty lies with this setup is with
deformation banding potential as the upper level low begins to
swing over the area through Saturday morning. With colder air
moving in aloft, lapse rates will steepen and enhance snowfall
rates in areas caught under any banding features. With this upper
level feature moving over the area, the precipitation regime also
becomes more showery in nature and convective, so expect snowfall
totals to vary even across a relatively small area.

The southerly flow behind these features will also advect colder
air from Southwest Alaska. Expect strong southerly wind gusts and
snow showers across Cook Inlet and Kachemak Bay this evening
through Saturday. A lot of the high resolution guidance wants to
develop a mesolow in Cook Inlet Saturday, keeping the pressure
gradient relatively strong for Homer and Kachemak Bay. At the same
time, the upper low moves over the area, adding instability and
the chance for snow showers to linger for the Anchorage Bowl, Mat
Valley, coastal mountains, and Copper River Basin, leading to
additional snow accumulations.

By late Saturday and Sunday, colder air will stream in from
Western Alaska with gusty gap winds developing and temperatures
falling back well below average for this time of year.

-AM/TM


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Sunday)...

The deep low that brought strong winds and moderate snowfall
across the AKPen and Bristol Bay, has largely transitioned east
into the Northern Gulf as of 4PM AKST, leaving behind a cold
northerly flow in its wake. Cloud streaks can be seen on satellite
across the majority of the Bering as cold air advection meets
warmer sea surface temperatures. To the east, the backside of the
occluded low has kept light snow showers in the forecast for the
Kilbuck and Kuskokwim Mountains (and nearby communities) through
Sunday morning. Otherwise, gusty and cold winds will persist,
especially though wind-prone wind gap areas, potentially lofting
snowfall and reducing local visibilities at times into the
beginning of next week. Of note, this type of flow promotes light
and persistent light snow that is both hard to predict and could
accumulate to a few inches - mainly across the Alaska Peninsula
and Aleutians - so stay tuned to forecast updates.

The main story with the northerly flow though is the frigid wind
chills forecast for the Southwest. A Cold Air Advisory has been
issued for the Alaska Peninsula as wind chills drop to 10 to 20
below zero through the weekend, beginning tonight. Across the
Southwest, wind chills near 30 below each of the early morning
hours through the weekend. Across the Western Aleutians, however,
a ridge of high pressure will sneak in from the west and across
the western- most Aleutian Islands, letting them warm, while
further developing the northerly flow to the east over the rest
of Southwest and Southern Alaska through the weekend and into
Monday. This pattern looks to stay in place into next week.

-AB

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Tuesday through
Friday)...

Upper-level troughing centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska
will extend south into the Northern Pacific, with multiple
shortwaves rotating around the trough. High pressure builds across
the Bering Sea through the forecast period. Strong northwesterly
flow and cold air advection will result in gusty gap winds and
cold temperatures across the Alaskan Peninsula. A tightening
coastal pressure gradient will also create strong winds through
the gaps of the North Gulf Coast. Forecast confidence is high that
both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will continue to see below
normal temperatures through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Snowfall is expected to be most intense from late this
afternoon through the evening hours with IFR conditions expected
for both ceilings and visibility. LIFR conditions are also
possible through this evening. Winds are expected to turn
southerly as the snow intensifies due to the low tracking to the
east of the airport. Total snow accumulation from this afternoon
through overnight is expected to be between 3 and 5 inches.

&&


$$